Thursday 18 September 2014

Why we do what we do. Lack of Resilience.

The previous three postings on Limits to Growth, Catastrophic Climate Instability and Accelerating Species Extinction should make us all think carefully about the Chinese proverb: To know and not act is not to know.  I thought the next in our series “Why we do what we do” should probably look at the concept of Resilience or lack thereof... just to keep things light!

So what is resilience?  Well, one definition is the capacity of a system to survive, adapt and grow in the face of unforeseen changes, even catastrophic incidences.  Or as it relates to ecology, the capacity of an ecosystem to absorb disturbance and still retain its basic structure and viability.

Try a thought experiment.

Look around where you are, at work, at home, on public transport (hopefully not driving) and start to look at the interconnectivity of everything around you.  Are you fortunate enough to be able to carry out your daily grind with little or any possibility of failure of the tools or systems around you?  Could you continue to function like a 21st century western European, feed yourself, warm yourself in winter, cool yourself in summer and keep yourself adequately entertained?

·         I am resident in Normandy, France.  I work in Brighton 4 days a week in the UK.
·         I get to and from the UK by catching the train to the ferry terminal and catching the overnight ferries from and to Portsmouth and Caen!
·         I work as a Quality Manager monitoring a management system of a small company and access all my work via our network.
·         I have music on my headphones from my computer being broadcast across the Internet.
·         I use a mobile phone that allows me wirelessly to stay in touch with La Fieffe.
·         I walk to and from work each day.
·         I stay with a good friend at his flat, which I use as a dormitory.

Granted my situation isn’t the most normal but it doesn’t stop me from assessing where resilience “bottle necks” may lie. 

1. Interruption to the supply of fuel (diesel) would immediately stop me from getting to the ferry terminal.  The ferries are currently also diesel fuel engines, so interruption of fuel would stop them in their tracks. 
2. The majority of energy generation in France is Nuclear (about 80%), so at least temporarily this would remain unaffected but in the UK it’s still fossil-fuel based, therefore interruption in these fuels would prevent electricity generation and stop my electric train in its tracks... pun intended.
3. At work my computer, music over the internet, mobile phone, heating and cooling system, refrigeration for food and innumerable other devices and systems that I take for granted would cease to work.
4.  This would extend to my friends flat.  The only facility available to me would be a bed and a roof over my head.
5. Now water is quite important to life, I believe... it is not taken from your house, cleaned stored and piped back by magic, there is quite energy expenditure in transporting it around the domestic water cycle.
6. There’s  food supply... we don’t, generally, buy locally anymore, the majority of our food (two thirds in the UK) is imported by lorry and plane, so those two have stopped because of fuel interruption and there is no food on supermarket shelves in 72-hours.
7. Loss of energy supply, potable water and loss of food wouldn’t necessarily mean collapse though, would it... maybe impromptu mass camping!  Think about hungry people with no access to food, water, alcohol, their smart phones and TV! HOLY SHIT!

That’s just my scenario.  It scares me half to death!  It shouldn’t be a massive leap to see why we identified our living arrangement in the UK as non-resilient and started looking for a more resilient set of arrangements.

After two years in France we are still massively exposed to the problems of any system failure.  There is so much to do, but we understand that to be resilient is not a static goal to strive for; the goal is to remove oneself from the system that is western industrial culture as it lacks the capacity to change.  That inflexibility will have a domino effect on other interconnected systems dependent upon the current system leading to massive collapse...

Here’s an alternative for you, hat tip to John Michael Greer, collapse now and avoid the rush!

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