As is the pattern for our chosen site and our current region, there aren’t many catastrophes that have struck this area historically. This probably explains why the area is hugely popular, potentially too populous to support itself. We have nominally identified Flooding, Tsunami, Coastal Erosion, Tornadoes and Snow as having caused the most problem historically.
As with many coastal towns in England there is always potential for flooding and coastal erosion. There has been particularly bad flooding in Lewes District (the district bordering Brighton & Hove) in the past 10 years:
“The flooding that occurred across much of England and Wales in the autumn and early winter of 2000 was the most extensive since the snowmelt-generated floods of March 1947. Two areas were particularly hard hit. In mid-October, large areas of Kent and Sussex were left underwater as rivers such as the Ouse at Lewes (East Sussex), the Uck at Uckfield (East Sussex) and the Medway at Tonbridge (Kent) burst their banks. Hundreds of homes and businesses were flooded to a depth of several feet, floodwater and landslips closed roads and rail travellers faced widespread delays and cancellations.”
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/autumn2000.html
In as much as these catastrophes do not directly impact on our site, they are close enough to be considered indirect threats as roads are blocked and utility services affected. Flooding can also affect the coast lines too. Without adequate sea defences much of the Sussex coastline would not be as “stable” as it currently is:
“Global warming and rises in sea level are in the news practically every day and in Sussex, particularly at Selsey, there are great worries that eventually the sea may wash away the town. This is nothing new. Thousands of acres of Sussex have been gobbled up by the sea over the last 10,000 years.”
http://www.westsussex.info/coastal-erosion.shtml
Tsunamis, although very rare, have to be considered as a potential catastrophe for any coastal settlement:
“Dr Steven Ward, a geophysicist as the University of California, Santa Cruz, has modelled a tsunami generated by a comet impact offshore western Ireland as envisaged by Haslett and Bryant. The results indicate that flooding described in the historic records from Cornwall, Cumbria, Hampshire, Sussex, Kent, North Wales and Holland can all be explained by a tsunami generated by such an impact event.” (My emphasis)
http://www3.newport.ac.uk/displayPage.aspx?object_id=8242&type=SEC
Tornadoes are most commonly associated with the American Midwest, home to Jessica, but surprisingly, the UK in general and the Sussex coastline more specifically is not free of them:
“On average, 33 tornados are reported each year in the UK although the number can vary significantly from year to year. The UK has the highest frequency of reported tornadoes per unit area in the world, although they are nowhere near as intense as those reported in the USA. An example of a tornado that affected southern England is the one that struck Kensal Rise in west London on 7 December 2006. Up to 150 homes were damaged and 6 people were injured in violent winds that lasted less than 1 minute. This was the first tornado to cause significant damage in London since one at Gunnersbury, west London, in December 1954. A further example is the tornado that struck Selsey (West Sussex) on 7 January 1998 causing an estimated £10M of damage to 1000 buildings. This part of the south coast seems somewhat prone to tornadoes, and Selsey also suffered damage in November 1986 and October 2000.”
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/so/print.html
Our final catastrophic occurrence we identified, purely due to the lack of preparedness that the local community displays, is snowfall. According to the Met Office, the least snow-prone areas in the UK are those situated close to the English Channel. Which is great when considering catastrophe preparedness, but historically we can still be “caught napping”:
“More snow hit Mid Sussex tonight only a few days after its heaviest snowfalls for 22 years disrupted services.”
http://www.westsussextoday.co.uk/mid-sussex-news/Snow-returns-after-worst-Mid.4956616.jp
“January and February are the snowiest months in the UK, whilst snow is more likely in March and April than November and October respectively. And really this is where talk of snow might be expected to end. However, having already most likely teased us with some pleasant summer-like weather earlier in the spring May is prone to throwing in a touch of winter, perhaps more often than might be thought...”
http://www.dandantheweatherman.com/Bereklauw/latesnow.html
2. What is the prediction for future catastrophes? Is your home site in an at-risk area?
The Environment Agency produces a detailed map that shows clearly the areas it believes based on historical data can and probably will suffer flooding in the future:
http://maps.environment-agency.gov.uk/wiyby/wiybyController?topic=floodmap&layerGroups=default&lang=_e&ep=map&scale=3&x=557847&y=117982
If we consider flooding/coastal erosion as one potential catastrophe for the area, then our site is pretty well protected from this. The site is located approximately one to two miles inland from the coast and at approximately 75 – 100 metre elevation too thus taking it well out of the range of most of the potential flood water range. The recent record snowfall that we had in Sussex didn’t pose too many problems either to the site, with the exception of a slightly more tricky access road.
3. What can you do/have you done to minimise the risks for loss of life and property?
For the most part we are pretty lucky to be in an area with little threat of a major catastrophic event. This could be viewed as prudent pre-planning to identify a suitable site free of risk from these types of unpredictable events. Every element of our design process is building up the armoury of our site. Our planning, then execution of those plans is ensuring the longevity of our home site. By examining each element and how it fits with corresponding elements, we are already building in fail safes and disaster mitigation strategies as we go.
We are slowly building a robust and well-thought-out site, leaving nothing to chance; amending as and when necessary to ensure we aren’t just utilising the site for our own purpose but also strengthening and protecting it as we go to satisfy our ethic of “Care of Earth”. All these design steps should lead to a well-protected site from unforeseen future catastrophes!
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